Are collectible knife prices up, down or sideways?
I'm curious as to what collectible knife prices are doing. Every now and then I hear reports of substantial premiums being paid for older GEC knives. Then someone tells me about a knife going for a super low price on Ebay. What trends are you 'active traders' seeing? Have the knife shows been busier than normal?
I'm asking because I've seen a lot of activity at the retail level and am wondering if it's due to an increase in the number of collectors discovering GEC knives or is there a general uptick in the number of people starting to collect. Another interesting personal observation has been that in spite of the tight economy, higher gas prices, etc, etc, it seems that the group of collectors moving to the higher priced knives is expanding. I know that in tough economic times investors move into higher quality investments and is that what we might be seeing. Is that what's going on or is there just a general increase in collectors joining the GEC fold?
I'm asking because I've seen a lot of activity at the retail level and am wondering if it's due to an increase in the number of collectors discovering GEC knives or is there a general uptick in the number of people starting to collect. Another interesting personal observation has been that in spite of the tight economy, higher gas prices, etc, etc, it seems that the group of collectors moving to the higher priced knives is expanding. I know that in tough economic times investors move into higher quality investments and is that what we might be seeing. Is that what's going on or is there just a general increase in collectors joining the GEC fold?
Greg:
My personal "trend" is my new found interest in GEC prototype knives.
I like the Southwestern Turquoise Conductor proto I got from you recently and I know I'll like the #23 ecl Primitive Bone proto that I bought from you this morning.
In my opinion, anyone with a 5-year collect-and-hold horizon should be looking at these protos.
Although a little more expensive than the regular runs, these one-of-a-kind knives will be "woulda, coulda, shoulda" conversations on the collectors' blogs in time.
I intend to add more GEC protos to my collection as my budget permits.
Stephen
Reply to this
i love protos, and there's no doubt they'll be worth a bundle in years to come, but i honestly think they're overpriced.
the fact that most languish unsold bears witness to that opinion.
they're beyond the reach of average gec fans who just want "something cool."
charging more than 2X the "standard" is lame, in my opinion.
they'll all just end up in the hands of investors and leave real collectors out in the cold.
just my 2ยข.
Reply to this
btw, stephen - i'm not implying that you're not a "real" collector.
terms like "5-year collect-and-hold horizon" do tend to imply an investor mentality, though.
no offense intended.
Reply to this
Mike:
I'm a collector who hopes that the value of the knives that I collect will increase over time.
What collector doesn't hope that his knives will appreciate in value?
For that matter, what collector wouldn't be concerned if his knives decreased in value?
What is a "real collector?"
No offense intended from this end, either.
Just good conversation.
I think the track record of Case protos deserves some consideration with respect to their initial prices vs. their current values.
You've already conceded that "GEC is developing into THE premier collector's brand."
Stephen
Reply to this
sure, everyone likes to hope their hobby can at least be self-sustaining - i trade and sell plenty of old stuff to finance the new.
as for a "real collector..." well, i think the purest collector is someone who collects purely for the enjoyment - for instance, i'm looking at the latest smkw catalog. i don't buy anything from there because it's mostly cheap chinese crap, and i'm a snob about knives. however, there are loads of people who will buy, for instance, the complete collection of rough rider smooth tobacco bone knives - and why not? they're only $15 bucks a pop or so. the guy who buys all of those KNOWS they will never be worth more than they cost now, but he enjoys getting the set. that person is much more of a "real collector" than you or i, in my opinion.
everyone loves to bring up the case classic proto argument. i counter with the bulldog proto argument. while case classics might fetch twice what they cost new, bulldog protos (once a darling of the collector scene) are more often than not selling for LESS than their new price.
i tell myself, "enjoy the knives you buy. appreciate them for what they are. if you can later sell or trade them for another knife, great. but don't fool yourself into thinking you'll send your kid to college with the proceeds - it won't happen."
investing in knives is just like investing anywhere else - there is no sure bet.
Reply to this
You're dead on. Years ago I was told when collecting to buy what I liked, not what I thought would appreciate. So far it's worked out pretty well. If the price drops it doesn't matter, I bought it cause I liked it. If the price goes up, that's a bonus.
Reply to this
Without sharing actual numbers, I assure you that it's not accurate to say 'most languish unsold'. I have an inventory of around 100 on hand in large part because I bought a collection of roughly 100 proto's in one lot last year. I continue to bring them in because there is a market for them. In part, I posed the question in part based on the increased Proto interest.
As far as "...charging more than 2x the "standard" price..." being 'lame', isn't my choice. Is GEC making an outrageous profit on them? I don't really care. Just like the consumer, I don't have to buy them so GEC's profit is irrelevant. I made a commitment to take most of the Proto's and I don't' regret it.
Consider that the Prototypes are more expensive than the serialized knives which are more expensive than the non serialized which are more expensive than the EDC knives. I think it's fantastic that there are literally 4 different price points that could be applied to the same model of knife. Whether you're on a beer or champagne budget, your options are wide open. (which brings to mind a one of a kind EDC 2007 unserialized 73 Black Buffalo that I sold for around $60)
I'll also assure you that they aren't all ending up the hands of investors. There are two on my desk right now that are on a 'payment' plan for a collector on a budget. Several collectors have picked up one to be a center piece of their collection. In addition, there are some of the proto's that can be had for less than the price of some of the regular run Genuine Stag knives.
Are the Prototypes overpriced??? Depends who you're talking to. I was at a gunshow last fall and paid an outrageous price for a pistol I wanted. Was it overpriced? Yup. Am I embarrassed at the price I paid? a little.... Do I regret buying it? No way. Could I afford to buy another one like it every month? Not a chance. It filled a spot that needed filling and that's what mattered. If all the knives and collectibles were priced in easy reach of everyone, they'd quit being special.
And speaking of collecting and being on a budget, for you younger married guys let me warn you that there's actually three prices you pay for your collectibles.
1) The price you paid.
2) The price you told your wife you paid.
3) The price you pay when she finds out.
Reply to this
"There are two on my desk right now that are on a 'payment' plan for a collector on a budget."
Kudos to you, Greg!!!
Stephen
Reply to this
greg, do you mark your sold protos as "sold" on the inventory page? i don't see any there listed as "sold."
most of the protos at other dealers have been sitting around for months, if not years, unsold as well. bill over at cumberland knifeworks has had some just sitting there forever and a day. same with gary at northwest.
i don't blame the dealers for the high price - i won't pretend to know why gec charges so much for them. they make lots of short runs of 1, 2 or 3 knives that don't get the 2x price treatment, though.
i too like the fact that gec offers knives at many price points. i think it's one more thing that makes them so popular with different types of collectors.
as the saying goes, "it's only worth what someone's willing to pay for it."
i would guess that protos move waaayyyy slower than any of the other premium-level knives from gec.
it's not the price itself that bothers me - it's the "bling," if you will. protos just don't offer anything more than a blade etch. on the other hand, if they made a short run of 89 whittlers with mother of pearl handles, fileworked springs, all nickel silver hardware and cpm 154 steel and charged twice the regular price, i'd buy one. that would be special.
protos are a dangerous game. i'd bet a surprising number of case classic protos are fake. it's worth some jerk's while to take a run-of-the-mill case classic to "things remembered" to get "prototype" etched on the blade for $15, print off a coa, and voila - rare, expensive prototype! the same could easily be done with these gec's.
i wish everyone well who lays down their hard earned cash for any knife they buy, and i hope they enjoy them immensely - far be it from me to tell people what to do. i just think the "proto" deal, as it stands right now, is a dicey proposition for buyer and seller alike in the future if one is looking for a return of investment. like i said elsewhere, "buy what you like." then, you'll never be disappointed.
Reply to this
I move the Sold Proto's off from the inventory list as soon as they sell. The only reason I leave the sold knives on the regular runs is that it's just easier than trying to delete them one at a time as they sell. Also on the regular runs, if they sell out quickly, they may not even make it onto the inventory list.
Absolutely, the regular run knives like the recent Kauri Wood or Gen Stags are gonna sell much faster then the Proto's hands down based on price and interest. Just to give you an idea, I've sold just 4 Proto's in the last 10 days. I have certain Proto's that are presold before they're even announced as an upcoming product based on the pattern. I started buying them for the store knowing full well they were going to be a long term investment and not a quick turn.
The proto's were extremely slow to take off when I first brought them in as I believe they were previously 'underexposed'. Most collectors didn't even know they existed unless they tripped across them at a show or on one of the mentioned websites. I'm seeing that change just in the last few months.
In my estimation, all of the knives are relatively easily forged. No big deal to go to the local jeweler and have a serial number engraved on a non serialized knife. It's much easier to polish a serial number off from a bolster and claim it's one of just 2 unnumbered knives (and you don't need a COA) than it would be to create an etch and then forge the accompanying COA for a Proto. It just doesn't take much creativity to be a successful thief. I tend to agree that buying any collectible is a risky proposition if it's done purely for investment purposes, as you said, buy what you like.
Reply to this
i think gec is developing into the premier collector's brand.
the bang:buck ratio is the best in the industry, and collectors are taking notice.
i also think their reduction in production numbers per pattern is creating much more collector appeal.
why buy a case that's limited to 1000 when you can buy a nicer gec for the same money that's limited to only 25?
also, there are people clamoring for sold-out gec's on the day of their release!
the "gotta have it" factor is growing with each new release.
i think they're simply making the most desirable knives we've seen in years.
Reply to this
Mike:
I totally agree!
AAPK now has about 6700 members and is adding 3-4 new members every day.
If 26 of those AAPK members want a specific GEC "limited to a run of 25 knife," one of those AAPK members is out of luck.....and then there are the thousands of knife collectors who aren't AAPK mambers.
No doubt the demand is, or soon will be, outstripping the supply.
Stephen
Reply to this
We invest, we collect, and we accumulate. The better the product,the higher the cost ,(we hope). The real question is what does a FROST cost and how many are being sold. This may determine the future of the U.S. knife industry. limited production runs are great, until they preclude knowledge of the product. So Buy U.S. it's worth the extra money in more ways than one, and economics will produce more GEC's. Good stuff always goes up. So lie to her if you must but, buy another knife.
Reply to this
I've seen alot of new people learning about GEC, and once they get their hands on one, they want lots more.
I also think that the collectors have seen that these are great knives and will be worthy of their attention. I have a bunch of Case lnives, and the collector "value" or interest is non-existent. People are tired of hype without substance, and this also makes GEC more attractive.
I frequent Bladeforums, and there is a large GEC contingent there that is growing all the time. People are all the time posting great pics of their collections and specific knives, so that's gotta increase interest. People are honest with each other, we read about all the cool knives, and we get high res photos of the bad ones, too. Including some GEC should never have mailed.
Reply to this
Investing in knives is highly unpredictable, what is sought after now may be ignored in a few years time, I would be very wary of depending on ANY increase in value unless you were lucky enough to catch a trend. I don't collect because I want certain serial numbers,all the same handles or one pattern-I know that there are such collectors. I collect or buy a knife simply because I like it and see future use in it.
However, the fact that GEC is a recently established cutler and yet has managed to weather the worst worldwide economic recession since WW II speaks volumes for their quality and authenticity. This is why people are so keen on the knives, and it's growing, including outside the USA. This may well raise prices and investor interest, but at the end of the day they turn out a very characterful, reliable knife with quality that continues to surprise and impress. They are America's best cutler, end.
Reply to this
Well put, and William you are from?????
Reply to this
So, when do we get our free prototypes ??
Reply to this
Almost immediately. Just click your heels together and say three times, there's no place like TSA Knives, there's no place like TSA Knives, ......
Reply to this
OK, but I may be the only one on here with Ruby Red shoes
Reply to this
Ruby Red shoes gets you a Prototype every time!!
(Were you wearin' 'em today?? LOL
Reply to this
My Ruby Red's and a HUGE smile my friend.
Reply to this
Heh, heh, heh.....
Reply to this
Greg,
Daily I read online or correspond with someone that says "I never heard of GEC before". I think when Mike said "the bang:buck ratio is the best in the industry, and collectors are taking notice.i also think their reduction in production numbers per pattern is creating much more collector appeal.
why buy a case that's limited to 1000 when you can buy a nicer gec for the same money that's limited to only 25?
" He hit the nail on the head for the up swing in the GEC brands.
I do know this is not the only brand you carry and you have seen sustained sales and upswings in those brands also. My personal opinion is that with the economics of the past few years knife collecting became a new hobby for folks. They start with the Rough Riders price rand and gradually came to the GEC quality.
Reply to this
I think that more and more people,have found out about the quality of GEC___I too,read the forums,and I also,post lots of photos,of my knives****Some guys e-mail me ,asking,where they can get the knives?? I've also,seen lots of sold and out of stock signs,on all the dealers sites---some of these knives,have been listed for 4 years ???? This is good for everyone---although as a ""collector"" it's harder to get one of the short runs,unless you keep your finger on the trigger____I have 4 GEC's that I carry, and a bunch,that I just admire in a display and hope to add a few more,as I can___I am as excited about the GEC knives now,as I was,about my first Case knife____some years ago--thanks for a great knife store and blog___Monk****
Reply to this
Monk,
I feel the same way. GEC has made knife collecting fun and adventurous again
Reply to this
Monk you are 100% right!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Reply to this
thanks Monk, it's participation from folks like you that make this blog.
You're right about everyone seeing more GEC activity. As you're watching the other boards, etc, do you sense that the prices on the GEC's have gone up, down or stayed about the same on the secondary market for the older knives?
Reply to this
The "first year" knives,( 2006)seem to be bringin' a premium price____of course,the stags are bringing the "'Big Bux""____there are still some of the 2007's and 2008's that are on the shelf,in most stores---I myself,just don't like the patterns ??? or the stag,is mis-matched really bad,on the stag knives ??? Some folks,that got into GEC,when they first started selling knives,have put some of their collections,on e-bay ---- and you can see some premium prices paid,but only about 6 / 10 bidders,battling it out ( myself,sometimes !!! )where as a prime,Case knife,may have 25 / 30 different bidders ??? this is slowly changing____what will be interesting, is to watch how the GEC,knives sell,now that they are starting to make a more conventional / smaller knife,that is similar,to the other makers ?????----hence the new ""Calf Roper ""----Case 6318/63032,Stockman*** the #33 Conductor---Case 62156 Tuxedo___ the quality of the knife ( good quality control !!! ) and the customer service,is what has propelled GEC,to the front---it has also awaken,the other makers,from their "" quality nap"" --their customer service,has gotten better also,due to the competition----everyone wants a GEC knife,and they want one at the lowest price,they can get it,wheather for use or collecting---although material cost is rising,I hope, they can continue to make knives,for everyones "'Pocketbook""---thanks again Greg,for the store and the blog___Monk***
Reply to this
hey MONK its peter from over at AAPK!!
good to see ya! hey i just wanted to say that i have seen the same thing and totally agree ....for awhile GEC knives would just sit.then all of a sudden poof knives i would go back to look for were gone!!
also talk about short runs.i know giuys who go to the opening house...spend al that money ...i would love it dont get me wrong but their main objective is to buy up as many "open house" knives. although if i ever make it their{twice i have had the chance and twice couldnt!!!}...anyway if i were to get an OH knife i dont think i would ever part with it.
Reply to this
Just got around to this post and here's my take. i've been collecting for the better part of forty years and i have never bought a knive to resale for profit. i've never even counted the number of knives i own, i don't have any idea. the reason i still collect is because i love the look of certain pattern or handle material. i own Randall Made , Great Eastern. Case XX, Bulldog, Winchester and many others and their is one thing for certain, the only people that really make money on knives are the makers and the dealers(sorry Greg). So i guess i really collect knives because i love them, i still love to look at them and hope that my two grandsons with love them as much as i did when i gone.
ps. i just bought a Case XX 7 Dot large Texas Toothpick with red bone handles(some of the most beautiful handles i have ever seen)in dead mint condition for 110.00 Dollars. thats a nearly 40 year old knive folks, just goes to show that their are still bargins to be had everyday. the hunt is the real fun in collecting and getting a bargin on great knife is too!
Pss. Greg don't you think it's time for a SALE????
Reply to this
I'm not a knife collector, but I do accumulate other things related to hunting including a few knives that catch my eye. The most fun for me is buying an item I'm not emotionally attached to and selling it for a profit to buy something I really want to add to my accumulation. Guess it all started for me when I was a kid (in my 20's) and didn't have any discretionary income to speak of. I either had to find part time work or do some buying and selling to feed my habit. Buying and selling was a lot more fun than working two jobs and it's carried over. (On top of that, my wife says I still don't have any discretionary income.)
The lesson I learned was the more stuff I had to trade or sell, the more people would look me up to find an item they were looking for 'cause they knew I had more stuff then I needed. That's what I've tried to do with TSA Knives. And I can't have a sale, I don't have enough knives in stock yet. I just had an email this week from a guy that wanted to know if I really had a certain 2008 knife in stock cause he'd never noticed it in my inventory till recently. Love it when that happens!!!
Reply to this
Until last year I didn't own a pocket knife. the only knife i had and used was a disposable pen knife(that you can break the tip once dull or chip) to sharpen my pencils. I had no need for a pocket knife. All that changed when my dad's birthday came up. I bought a #12 elk stag for him in mind. Needless to say the knife stayed with me(sorry dad
I am hooked. I don't collect any specific pattern/handles/serial # etc. Nor i am looking forward to making any profit from my collections. I just buy what i like and i enjoy what i bought. Now i think i am the only guy with a lot of GEC on the whole island. Speaking of which Greg do you have any other customer from Singapore beside me??
Reply to this
The closest customers I have to you are in Bangkok, Brunei and Jakarta. BUT, not too much farther from you, the Aussies and New Zealanders are the fastest growing group of new, International GEC collectors to join the ranks!!
Reply to this
I'm new to knife collecting,about two years now. As for knives increasing in value, if anybody out there has a crystal ball that works I'll be glad to buy it. I purchased Buzz Parker's last book recently and was astonished that 20 year old Case 88's were generally selling for less than the newer production runs. Now, back to GEC, the quality of their knives is outstanding. What if we could go back in time and could buy the Holleys or New York Knife Co. knives to preverve them for our children. I consider GEC knives to be very comparable to these fine old knife companies. I like to think of Mr. Howard and Mr. Daniels as Schatt & Morgan's poetic payback- if you're familiar with that story. I look for the increases in value to be flat in the near future, but I hope that the value will increase dramatically in the long run. I'm 62 years old. I'm not buying these GEC knives for myself ,but for my 10-year old little girl. Besides if profit is the goal, remember Ford stock was close to $1.50 a share in late 2008. Alas, where is that crystal ball when you need one?
Reply to this
If you don't swing the bat you can't hit the ball, but sometimes it's just fun to be in the game!!
Reply to this
i didnt read all the posts so if anything is repeated im sorry.
i just wanna say 2 things with this subject since really how a knife is acquired can come so many ways.how one person collects is totally the opposite of why another does.some collect and only use one knife,example,paracord wrapped handled knives only.you may have a 10,000$ collection but maybe your a hardcore ebayer,{just example} and you have been lucky enough to only have had to invest a total of 3500$ in your shopping.{MY factory test run piece..i only own one....but i grabbed it for 52$shipped.the wife has it now...but hopefully ill get her back....lol}
With that said...my main two comments are this.. i have been realizing it pays off more for me IMO to buy vintage.now when i say vintage i mean 30-50yrs i have lots of reason.mostly just because i love a beautiful new shiny piece to carve my own history out with...but i love my knives with history already included!{i do however understand that 2006 GEC would be their vintage line as of now,so therefore with certain knives you see a rush on}also regardless of how much folks use their GEC knives MORE are sold and are designed to be safe pieces or collected and stored.the so many etches and stampings show this.i have grabbed GEC EDC off ebay for under 30$ because the etch was buffed of.they are a great work knife and thats why if you can afford to EDC them thats great!
My second comment {may have been a few by now...}....i just wanted to say that i cant quite put it into words but this reminds me of the CASE CLASSIC story.not the knives in comparison.i don't even own a CASE CLASSIC. i remember the all of a sudden run to gobble those up.NOW, they are spitting all back up again all over and you can nab them at great deals.
in the end i wanna say that GEC knives are as of right now,for the money,the best made knife in the USA currently.i cant lie and say that if i didnt have unlimited funds i wouldnt be a GEC piggie!
Reply to this
OK, here's a confession from an obsessive GEC collector (accumulator, investor, you name it). Back around 1979/1980 I remember my Dad advising me that I should consider picking up some knives from a new manufacturer named Bulldog Knives. He said that they were well made and the initial models might be worth something in the future. I didn't do it because I thought they were overpriced (actually I had to really watch my pennies back then). Of course, those first and second year Bulldogs are worth a lot now. It was June 2007 when I was scanning the web and ran across the GEC knife story and tried one out. I was amazed at the quality (even though we all know they had a few early issues in some pieces). This time around I decided to take a chance on GEC and bought them exclusively and often (previously I sought the vintage knives like NYKC, Robeson, Cattaragus, old Queen, etc.). I was working in Iraq on a defense contract at the time and couldn't go outside the compound without risking being murdered - so sat in front of the computer most evenings and had money to spend (my wife would not entirely agree with that last assessment). I missed out on most of the 2006 models (although was fortunate enough to get the Moss Green 73 and Chocolate Jig 23 as well as three Burnt Stag 23s and some of the other more common models). But I have a good portion of the models from 2007-2009. 576 GEC knives all tallied. Did I go totally overboard? Yes! Do I regret it? No! It's like Christmas every time I open a tube and check out a piece (talking prototypes - how about the first primitive bone model in 2007, a 73 which was called Old Bone and made from start to finish by Mr. Howard according to the Letter of Authenticity or a 2007 Black Lip Pearl 73 with fancy filing on the backsprings and blades by the GEC factory - has anyone seen another fancy filing model from the factory? just curious). Will I have a great time selling/trading them or giving them to my children at some point in the future? Absolutely! Did my wife almost divorce me over my GEC "problem"? Almost, but time heals and she's come to admire the GECs too - she carries an Elk 25 barlow jack in her purse... And, somehow I weaned myself off them and only got six 2010 GECs. Man, it's been hard seeing the great new models coming out. I probably need to attend GEC Anonomous meetings soon to stay on the wagon...
Reply to this
i have to say MIKE....with that many ...you could hold your own GEC table at a show!...congrats on all those tubes!...i was liucky and got in at 2006....but ran broke by 2008....i started grabbing the sunnies up by the handful.then had to stop buying knives almost all the way.your collection im sure is awesome and i would love pics!
Reply to this
Well Peter, I ran broke in 2009. Couldn't keep up with it...GEC was introducing a new model non-stop. I'll try to get some photos up soon.
Reply to this
Your wife doesn't know who I am or where I live I hope!!! How about a few pix sometime of a couple of the more rare pieces?
Reply to this
Better watch it Greg - at least your address as I'm sure there are 30 knife filled boxes laying about with your return address on it!
Reply to this